President Trump is expected to sign one or more executive orders impacting refugee resettlement this week. There are rumors about what form these orders may take, including a ban on refugees from certain Muslim countries, and a temporary ban on most refugees being resettled in the U.S - but the final form of potential orders remains to be seen. This article will address the impact of such policies on refugee resettlement, and the refugee crisis, as well as discuss their ultimate sustainability.
Beyond the sustainability of Trump's executive orders, congress is also set to determine the budget for resettlement and related programs later this year. Their decisions could have a more permanent impact on our refugee community.
Regardless of the outcome of this new political season, refugee aid organizations are in the US to stay. They will continue to provide economic empowerment and self sufficiency services to our domestic refugee communities, even if the flow of new Americans is temporarily halted.
A Background of Refugee Resettlement
There is a lot of misinformation about refugees and refugee resettlement recently floating in the American consciousness. For those that are not familiar with refugees, it may be necessary to provide a quick introduction.
The word refugee can refer to a lot of different people, but legally has a clear definition. Technically, anyone who is forced to flee their homes could be referred to as a refugee - but it is also a legal status that one must apply for to be internationally recognized. These refugees are people who have been forced from their home due to violence and persecution, and who end up in one of the refugee aid camps supported by the UNHCR (the refugee assistance arm of the U.N.) and other international aid organizations. Once in the camps, those who are driven from their homes must apply to be internationally recognized as a refugee, with proof of their persecution and their inability to return home. The UNHCR refugee definition is above.
Most refugees today come from countries with well documented warfare, ethnic conflict, political and religious persecution, etc, including Somalia, Myanmar, the DRC, Iraq, and of course the more recent conflict, Syria.
Once refugees are in contact with the UNHCR in the refugee camps, they can apply to be resettled in one of several nations that have refugee resettlement programs, including in this case, the U.S. UNHCR reviews their case, including background checks and whether the families have ties in the U.S. The UNHCR then refers the best cases to the U.S., generally referring only 1-2% of of the refugees they serve.
Several U.S. intelligence organizations are then involved in a long vetting process, which generally takes over a year, and longer if the refugee comes from countries with high instances of terrorism. Generally, the clients that are resettled in the U.S. through this process have U.S. ties, are a family unit, and have waited many years in the refugee camps for their opportunity to start a new life. Refugees who come to the United States represent a small fraction of the total refugee crisis, which is why most refugees stay in the refugee camps, sometimes for decades, and perhaps indefinitely.
Sometimes refugees can be confused with other immigrant groups. These groups can include:
- Asylees - By international law, a person who arrives at a country seeking asylum from persecution in their home country must be received by the destination country, and their case reviewed at least temporarily. In the U.S., asylum seekers must be able to prove that they are fleeing political or other persecution - and depending on their case they may be accepted and allowed to settle in the U.S., or their case may be rejected and they are deported.
- Special Immigrant Visas - Today, SIVs are most often Iraqis and Afghans who have assisted the U.S. military over the last decade and a half of military campaigns in those countries. They are resettled through the same organizations as refugees, but are generally not internationally recognized as refugees. Most SIVs are families with one or more members who have greatly assisted the military, and are now bringing their families out of harms way.
- Undocumented Immigrants - All refugees who are resettled in the U.S. are documented, and have gone through the most stringent vetting process of any arrivals in the U.S. Although many people who have crossed the U.S. border illegally are themselves fleeing crisis, they are not legally refugees, and are not resettled by refugee organizations.
Potential Actions Against Refugee Resettlement by the Executive Branch
Refugee resettlement, and the funding of its programs, falls under the legislative branch. However, the executive branch - Trump - can call for a cease in arrivals. This would mean that a budget would still exist to enact refugee resettlement, but there could technically be no one brought forward to be resettled. This would be an abuse of executive power, to be sure, but such an action would hardly come as a surprise.
Rumors, and a leaked document, suggest that Trump as early as tomorrow is planning to enact two executive orders relating to refugee resettlement. First he will suspend all refugee resettlement for 120 days, and conduct a review of the vetting process. Second, refugees from several countries will be barred indefinitely, including Somalia, Iraq, Iran, Libya, Sudan, Yemen, and Syria. An alternative rumor suggests that only Syrians will be barred indefinitely, while the other countries will be barred for a month.
President Trump has the authority to enact both agendas - although it is expected that there will be legal challenges to his actions, and hopefully public and legislative pressure to reverse his actions, or at least not renew them after the specified time period.
It remains to be seen whether these actions constitute a genuine change in policy direction for the United States, or if it is a show of executive power - a bone if you will to the constituents who put Trump in power, but not a serious one.
President Trump campaigned on the promise that he would bar Muslim immigrants. Such an action would have been decidedly unconstitutional - so the less obviously controversial option seems to be to block immigrants from Muslim countries, which essentially accomplishes the same thing. There will be legal challenges, and there will be public backlash - what becomes of this backlash will likely unfold over the next several weeks.
Aside from the executive orders that will likely come tomorrow, Trump has also campaigned on the promise to allow the States to opt out of refugee resettlement. In the past, every republican governor except for Utah's Gary Herbert have expressed the desire to opt out of resettling refugees, or at the least Syrian refugees.
So, how do these Executive Actions Impact Refugee Resettlement
Naturally, barring refugees from entering the country for a period, and blocking Muslim refugees, will impact refugee resettlement. However, it may not be as damaging as one might assume. Refugee resettlement agencies have a contract with congress each that if they do not end up resettling as many refugees as was planned in the contract, they still receive 80% of the funds that would have supported that many refugees.
What this means is that, even if the resettlement organizations do not receive new members for a year, they still have 80% of their budget to use to help current clients obtain self sufficiency, and to continue to be a boon to local communities. This would also allow them to keep the majority of their staff on hand in the event the flow of refugees resumes.
This contract lasts through FY17, after which more permanent damage to resettlement could come from congress.
Potential Actions from Congress
Congress determines the budget for programs such as refugee resettlement. In FY16, the budget for refugee resettlement called for 85,000 refugees. President Obama called for 110,000 refugees in FY17, although a budget has not been created for this yet. The previous budget expired in December, and until a new budget is created, the U.S. Office for Refugee Resettlement will operate under FY16's budget - or the 85,000 people. Congress is expected to address the budget problems by April - although with enough bipartisan approval it may be done earlier.
The House and the Senate are now both under Republican control - but it is unclear what that will mean for refugee resettlement. On one had, refugee resettlement has always enjoyed bipartisan support, with more refugees resettled under Republican Presidents, than Democratic Presidents. On the other hand, once refugee resettlement became a partisan issue during the presidential election, most Republicans came to criticize resettlement - with the exception of many from the Mormon caucus. Much of this criticism was likely done for political points among constituents for disagreeing with Obama - but even if it was not genuine, much of the conservative base is now fired up against refugee resettlement - leaving Republican lawmakers in a tough position. A tough position that is if they are concerned with doing the right thing and serving refugees.
There are two scenarios congress could take involving cuts to refugee resettlement. They could end the program indefinitely - which is the less likely scenario considering the potential public outcry, and the loss of any moral high ground conservatives still have. However, given the oddities of this political season, I would not rule this scenario out.
A second scenario is that they cut back on the number of refugees, or the types of programming for refugees. The U.S. has a long history of resettling many refugees - with last year's number of 85,000 as not being a particularly high year overall (the highest number was in 1980 when 207,000 refugees were resettled).
As of right now, the Office of Refugee Resettlement provides resettlement agencies not only with a small allotment of money to resettle refugees, but also access to grants for additional programming, including intensive case management, community gardens, etc. These additional programs may be targeted - which would greatly impact the quality of programming for clients, and forcing resettlement agencies to further reach for community partners in providing quality programming.
While Trump is a loose cannon who doesn't seemed phased by public scrutiny, congressional races are still more traditional - meaning your public reaction can mean something. In order to save resettlement funding congress needs to see a bipartisan call from Americans to continue refugee resettlement.
Regardless of what Trump or Congress does, refugee resettlement agencies are here to stay.
Those that I am familiar with are committed to continuing to provide excellent economic empowerment and self sufficiency services to our domestic refugee communities, even if the flow of new Americans is temporarily halted.
Their funding is more and more diverse - with this political season leading to more donations than ever - so even without a congressional budget they will continue to be able to serve.
As I work with refugee resettlement, I have access to some information that might not be readily available and would love to answer any of your questions below. However, my views and answers to not represent the International Rescue Committee, or any other refugee resettlement agency.
Thanks for reading!
